Oracle Licensing Predictions for 2026: What IT and Asset Managers Should Prepare for Now

Oracle licensing has been evolving for years, but the pace of change heading into 2026 is notably accelerating. Expanded investments in artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure, and multi-cloud delivery models are reshaping how customers license, renew, and manage Oracle technology. For IT asset managers, procurement leaders, and technology executives, these changes introduce increased complexity, but also opportunity. Organizations that understand Oracle’s direction and prepare accordingly will be better positioned to control costs, manage compliance risk, and maintain leverage in negotiations. This article expands on key themes discussed during Anglepoint’s recent webinar on Oracle licensing predictions for 2026.

Why Oracle’s Strategy is Reshaping Licensing Models

Oracle’s recent product announcements reflect a clear focus on artificial intelligence and cloud consumption. Enhancements such as Oracle Database 26 AI, MySQL AI, Fusion SaaS AI Agents, and expanded OCI AI services increase functionality across the portfolio while reshaping how licensing is measured and managed. At the same time, Oracle is making significant investments in AI-optimized data centers and cloud infrastructure. These investments increase the need for predictable, recurring revenue, resulting in tighter commercial terms and greater pricing discipline. These shifts are increasing Oracle licensing complexity, particularly as consumption-based metrics expand across SaaS, PaaS, and IaaS offerings. Oracle is moving customers away from static licensing models and toward ongoing usage tracking. Examples include AI agents licensed per user or employee, shared AI token pools, transaction-based metrics, and hourly AI unit consumption. Oracle’s multi-cloud strategy adds another layer of complexity. Even when workloads run in AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud, Oracle-specific licensing metrics still apply, requiring organizations to understand how consumption is measured across environments.

Prediction 1: Continued Incentive to Move from On-Premises to Cloud

One of the most consistent Oracle licensing trends we are seeing is the push to transition customers away from traditional on-premises perpetual licenses. Support renewal increases, now commonly reaching 10 percent annually, are accelerating the long-term cost of maintaining on-premises environments. Oracle is expected to further encourage cloud adoption through:

• Higher and more consistent support renewal uplifts
• Stricter qualification or reduced rates for Oracle Support Rewards (OSR)
• Greater incentives for license-included cloud models
• Increased scrutiny of long-term on-premises licensing strategies

Oracle’s multi-cloud offerings with AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud reinforce this approach. While customers gain deployment flexibility, Oracle retains control through its own licensing metrics and commercial frameworks.

Prediction 2: Renewal Negotiations Will Become More StructuredIn prior years, customers often relied on discounting and extended terms to manage Oracle renewals. Heading into 2026, those approaches are becoming less effective.

Oracle is increasingly enforcing:

• Higher standard renewal uplifts
• Net-30 payment terms
• Reduced discount flexibility, including during compliance discussions
• Greater reliance on standardized contract language

While price holds and concessions remain possible, they are more frequently tied to longer-term commitments, upfront investments, or accelerated cloud adoption. Effective renewal outcomes now depend on early planning, clear usage visibility, and defensible cost models.

Prediction 3: Oracle Audit Activity Will Become More Targeted and Data-driven

While we do not expect a significant increase in formal Oracle audit frequency, informal audits and data-driven compliance reviews are likely to become more common, particularly around renewals, expansions, and cloud migrations. Oracle’s access to detailed cloud usage data enables faster and more targeted compliance assessments. Organizations that lack accurate entitlement and deployment data may find themselves at a disadvantage during these engagements.

How to Prepare for Oracle Licensing in 2026

Oracle licensing in 2026 will be shaped by AI adoption, cloud consumption, and stricter pricing discipline. Organizations that rely on legacy licensing approaches will face increased cost, complexity, and compliance risk. To prepare, organizations should focus on a few core priorities:

• Establish accurate baselines across on-premises and cloud environments
• Model cloud migrations carefully to avoid over-licensing and wasted spend
• Implement governance for AI usage, token consumption, and BYOL deployments
• Use deal timing strategically to maintain negotiation leverage
• Stay audit-ready with reliable data and defensible documentation

Taking these steps enables organizations to engage Oracle with clarity and confidence. At Anglepoint, we work alongside IT, procurement, and finance teams to bring structure, data, and practical guidance to Oracle licensing strategy, helping organizations reduce risk, manage spend, and make informed decisions as Oracle’s licensing model continues to evolve.